Despite the impact of Omicron on registrations in the first few weeks of January, over 8,000 registrations were recorded for the month (30% above the long-term average) for Mumbai region which has given the realtors a hope for sustained recovery in demand for real estate. For Maharashtra, January registrations were 13% above the LT average. For 3QFY22, registrations (including primary and resale transactions) for Mumbai City were up 6% QoQ, which is 37% above the long-term average.
Further, pre-sales for listed developers were the highest-ever, on aggregate basis, up 146% YoY and 29% QoQ. DLF, Lodha, Oberoi, Piramal and Sobha – all have reported their best-ever or near best pre-sales in the 3rd Quarter, driven by broad-based improvement across sustenance sales and new launches. On 9MFY22 basis, pre-sales for the top-11 listed developers were in line with FY21 full year numbers. If this trend continues in the fourth quarter also one can safely assume that FY22 would clock high double-digit growth on an aggregate level, in line with the 25-30% pre-sales growth guidance.
Also, during 3rd Quarter, developers reported healthy launches, except for Bangalore developers, who witnessed approval delays. However, most of these developers expect this to ease out in 4th Quarter, which is the strongest quarter seasonally. Even more inspiring is the FY23 pipeline which also looks healthy. Given the strong demand tailwinds, developers are now also aggressively looking to add new projects on a joint venture, joint development or outright basis. In Mumbai, developers have been more aggressive. For example, Lodhas have added Rs 100bn in Q3, GPL (DB portfolio – later withdrawn), PEPL (DB portfolio), Mahindra Life has Rs 80bn BD pipeline and also have bought Kandivali land from M&M and for Kalpataru there is 10msf/Rs 65bn BD in pipeline.
Lengthy list of projects in pipeline and prevailing low mortgage rates ensure sustained recovery in real estate business in the coming quarters.